Bike Crash Risk: Hyde Park to Forest Hills Corridor

Predicted crash risk for intersections in the Hyde Park / Roslindale / Jamaica Plain / West Roxbury corridor. Red = higher risk. Hover for details. Trained on 42,684 crash dispatch records (3,896 bike) from 2015-2025.

Crash data from Boston Vision Zero are dispatch records (when public safety responded to a crash location). Severity and fatality information is not included in this dataset.

0.728

AUC (classification)

5.664

RMSE (crash count)

-0.334

R-squared

Study Corridor

Street	Bike Crashes (2015-2025)	Notes
Hyde Park Ave	19	Primary commute route, Hyde Park to Forest Hills
Washington St	87	Major arterial through Roslindale to JP
Cummins Hwy	5	27K cars/day on 2 lanes
Centre St	48	West Roxbury corridor

Key Terms

Term	Definition
AADT	Annual Average Daily Traffic. Number of vehicles passing a road segment per day, averaged over the year. [1]
LTS	Level of Traffic Stress. A 1-5 rating of cycling comfort based on traffic volume, speed, lanes, and bike infrastructure. 1 = safe for all ages, 2 = most adults, 3 = experienced cyclists, 4 = high stress, 5 = no bike access. [2]

Model Performance History

Date	LR AUC	GNN AUC	GNN RMSE	GNN R2	Nodes
2026-05-10 05:30 UTC	0.7397	0.734	5.6995	-0.3507	10517

References

MassDOT Traffic Inventory 2024. Massachusetts Department of Transportation.
Mekuria, M., Furth, P. G., & Nixon, H. (2012). Low-Stress Bicycling and Network Connectivity. Mineta Transportation Institute Report 11-19, Northeastern University.
Boston Vision Zero Crash Records. City of Boston. Updated monthly.
Hamilton, W. L., Ying, R., & Leskovec, J. (2017). Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs. NeurIPS 2017.
Boeing, G. (2017). OSMnx: New Methods for Acquiring, Constructing, Analyzing, and Visualizing Complex Street Networks. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 65, 126-139.
MassDOT Bike Level of Traffic Stress. Massachusetts Department of Transportation.